Bitcoin to $200K? Arthur Hayes Connects the Dots Between Fed Policy and Crypto Growth
The Web3 industry is full of an incredible variety of views, approaches, and expert opinions. It’s a young and fast-evolving space where it can often be hard to tell what’s truly important and what is just noise. Still, among all these voices, some stand out and deserve special attention. Today, in our news article, Coinmooner wants to share an analysis of one such important voice in the crypto community.
We’re talking about Arthur Hayes — the former CEO of the well-known crypto exchange BitMEX. His name has long been associated with deep analytical takes on macroeconomics and the digital asset market. In his new essay titled “Ski Cut,” Hayes shares a bold and interesting point of view: he directly connects changes in U.S. fiscal policy with Bitcoin’s growth potential. He even predicts that the cryptocurrency could break past $110,000 and reach a stunning $200,000.
In the essay, Hayes analyzes the strategy of the U.S. Treasury and the Federal Reserve with his usual depth. He believes these institutions are increasing liquidity in the economy. According to him, this macroeconomic policy creates a strong foundation for Bitcoin’s growth and boosts bullish sentiment in the crypto market. This viewpoint offers a different understanding of current events that many still struggle to grasp.
Hayes also draws historical parallels, comparing the current situation to the third quarter of 2022, when Bitcoin dropped below $16,000 and was at risk of falling to $10,000. Like back then, when few believed in a turnaround, many worry about a drop from $74,500 to $60,000 today. However, Hayes points out that in both cases, government actions to maintain liquidity were the key factor, and these are often underestimated.
Former BitMEX CEO: Why Bitcoin Is the New Digital Safe Haven
He especially highlights an initiative by Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, who began increasing the issuance of short-term bills while cutting back on long-term bonds. This policy helps "free up" liquidity held in the Federal Reserve’s reverse repo system and return it to active circulation in the market. Even though these actions aren’t officially labeled as quantitative easing, their effect is quite similar — they boost money flow.
It’s also worth noting that in March, the Fed slowed the pace of its quantitative tightening program, which also has a positive impact on market liquidity. This creates a favorable environment for assets seen as “safe havens” during unstable times.
Hayes is confident that Bitcoin can gain a significant advantage in an environment of rising or even potential liquidity — mainly if volatility stays high in traditional markets. He believes the cryptocurrency could move further from tech stocks and behave more like gold, becoming a digital safe-haven asset amid geopolitical risks and economic turmoil.
With this in mind, Hayes’s investment firm Maelstrom made a strategic move: when Bitcoin dropped from $110,000 to $74,500, they increased their reserves, showing strong belief in its long-term potential.
Finally, CoinMooner wants to remind everyone in the Web3 community that in rapidly evolving tech and global financial shifts, using the most up-to-date and secure methods to protect your digital assets is crucial. Security isn’t just a recommendation—it’s the foundation of trust and stability in the world of decentralized finance.
